1. Kunzwisisa Inflation
Munyika yekutengesa, inflation isimba riri pose pose rinoumba chinyararire mamiriro erwendo rwako rwemari. Zvakafanana nemhepo inofamba zvishoma nezvishoma, kazhinji isingaonekwi asi inogara iri pabasa, zvishoma nezvishoma ichibvisa simba rekutenga remadhora ako aunenge washanda nesimba. Asi chii chaizvo chinonzi inflation? Pakati payo, chiyero chiri kukwira huwandu hwemitengo yezvinhu nesevhisi, zvokonzera kuti simba rekutenga remari ridzike.
Inflation inowanzoyerwa sewedzero yegore negore. Sezvo inflation ichikwira, dhora rega rega raunaro rinotenga chikamu chidiki chechinhu chakanaka kana sevhisi. For traders, kunzwisisa inflation kwakakosha nekuti inobata zvakananga kudzoka pakudyara kwako. Kana inflation yakwira, mwero chaiwo wekudzoka pakudyara unogona kunge wakaderera zvakanyanya pane wezita rekudzoka.
Central bank edza kudzikamisa inflation - uye kudzivirira deflation - kuitira kuchengetedza hupfumi huchifamba zvakanaka. Kunyangwe mhedzisiro yeinflation yakakura-siyana, imwe yeakanyanya kukosha kune traders ndiko kukanganisa pa interest rate. Kana bhanga guru renyika richiona inflation yanyanya kukwira, inogona kukwidza mhindu kuti inonoke hupfumi uye kuderedza inflation.
Sezvo a trader, zvakakosha kuongorora inflation maitiro. Sei? Nokuti a kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwe inflation zvinogona kuita kuti mabhanga epakati akwidze mubereko, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kudzikira kwemitengo yemasheya. Sezvineiwo, inflation yakaderera kana kudonha inogona kutungamira kune yakaderera mubereko, izvo zvinogona kuwedzera mitengo yemasheya. Naizvozvo, kunzwisisa inflation uye zvazvinoita pane yako yekutengesa nzira yakakosha pakuita sarudzo dzine ruzivo dzinogona kukubatsira kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvako zvemari.
Kunyange zvazvo zvisingabviri kufanotaura nezveramangwana, kuziva chiyero chemazuva ano chekukwira kwemitengo uye mukana wekuchinja zvinogona kupa ruzivo rwakakosha. Saka, ramba wakatarira kukwira kwemitengo uye gadzirisa yako yekutengesa nzira zvinoenderana. Rangarira, munyika yekutengeserana, ruzivo isimba, uye kunzwisisa inflation chishandiso chine simba mune yako arsenal.
1.1. Tsanangudzo yeInflation
Inflation, izwi rinowanzoitwa pamusoro pemari, ipfungwa yakakosha iyo tradevanoda kubata. Ndiyo mwero wehuwandu hwemitengo yezvinhu nemasevhisi uri kukwira, uyezve, simba rekutenga riri kudonha.
Kuti uzviise mumashoko akareruka, fungidzira kuti unogona kutenga motokari nemadhora makumi maviri ezviuru nhasi. Kana inflation yaizokwira ne20,000% mugore rinotevera, motokari imwe chete iyoyo yaizokubhadhara $2. Kuwedzera uku kunokonzerwa nekukwira kwemitengo.
Nekufamba kwenguva, mutengo wezvinhu nemasevhisi uchiwedzera, kukosha kwedhora kunenge kwave kuderera nekuti munhu haakwanisi kutenga zvakawanda nedhora iroro sezvaaigona kuita kana mutengo wakaderera. Izvi ndizvo zvakakosha kukanganisa kweinflation pasimba rako rekutenga.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti inflation haina hunhu hwakaipa. Kukwira kwemitengo kuri pakati nepakati chiratidzo chaicho chehutano hwakanaka, huri kukura. Mabhizinesi ane mukana wekuwedzera mihoro paanenge achitengesa zvinhu zvakawanda uye masevhisi, uye vatengi vanowanzoshandisa mari pavanenge vachiwana yakawanda.
Zvisinei, kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira kunogona kukonzera kusagadzikana kwehupfumi, zvichiita kuti vanhu vaderedze kushandisa mari, izvo zvinogona kuderedza kukura kwehupfumi. Pamusoro peflip side, deflation (negative inflation) inogonawo kutungamirira kumatambudziko ehupfumi. Kana mitengo ichidzikira, vatengi vanowanzononoka kutenga vachitarisira kuderera kwemitengo, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kudzikira kwekuda, zvichikonzera kuti mabhizinesi aderedze kugadzira uye zvichikonzera kudzikira kwehupfumi.
Kukwira kwezvinhu, naizvozvo, a munondo unocheka kumativi maviri. Icho chikamu chakakosha chehupfumi hune hutano, asi chinoda kunyatsotariswa uye kudzorwa kudzivirira matambudziko angangoitika ehupfumi. Sezvo a trader, kunzwisisa inflation kwakakosha pakuita zvisarudzo zvine ruzivo, sezvo zvisingakanganisi hupfumi chete asiwo mhindu, izvo zvinozokanganisa musika wemasheya.
1.2. Zvikonzero zveInflation
Kana zvasvika kune zvinokonzeresa inflation, zvakakosha kuti unzwisise kuti haisi chiitiko chisina kujairika, asi kuti mhedzisiro yemamiriro ehupfumi. Demand-pull inflation chimwe chezvikonzero zvakadaro, chinoitika kana kudiwa kwezvinhu nemasevhisi kuchipfuura zvavanopihwa. Kusaenzana uku kunogona kukonzerwa nekuwedzera kushandiswa kwevatengi, mari yehurumende, kana mari yekunze.
Pane rimwe divi, cost-push inflation inokonzerwa kana mitengo yekugadzira ichikwira, zvichiita kuti kuderera kwekupa. Izvi zvinogona kunge zvichikonzerwa nekukwira kwemuhoro, kana kuwedzera kwemutengo wezvigadzirwa. Inyaya yechinyakare yemari yakawandisa uchidzingirira zvinhu zvishoma.
Yakavakwa-in inflation chimwe chikonzero, chinova inflation inotarisirwa kuitika mune ramangwana. Iyi tarisiro inogona kutungamirira kuhuporofita hunozadzika, sezvo vashandi vanoda mibairo yakakwirira uye mabhizimisi anokwidza mitengo mukutarisira kuwedzera kwepamusoro.
Pakupedzisira, hyperinflation ndiyo yakanyanyisa kukwira kwemitengo, inowanzokonzerwa nehurumende inodhinda mari yakawandisa. Izvi zvinogona kukonzera kukurumidza uye kusingadzoreki kuwedzera kwemitengo, kazhinji kunoguma nekusagadzikana kwehupfumi.
Chimwe nechimwe chezvikonzero izvi chinogona kuitika chakazvimirira, kana kuti chinogona kupindirana nekusimudzirana, zvichitungamira kune dzakaoma kunzwisisa dzekukwira kwemitengo. Kunzwisisa zvikonzero izvi kwakakosha pakufambisa mamiriro emari uye kuita sarudzo dzekutengesa dzine ruzivo.
1.3. Mhando dzeInflation
Kunyura mukati menyika yekukwira kwemitengo, tinosangana nemhando dzakasiyana siyana iyo imwe neimwe inotakura yayo yakasarudzika seti yehunhu. Inokambaira Inflation, iyo inonziwo mild inflation, inononoka uye yakadzikama kukwira kwemitengo, inowanzoonekwa sechiratidzo chehutano hwehutano. Rudzi urwu rwekukwira kwemitengo kazhinji rwuri mukati mechikamu che1-3% pagore.
Kufamba Inflation, kune rumwe rutivi, ndipo apo inflation inowedzera, kazhinji pakati pe3-10% pagore. Ichi chiratidzo kune nyanzvi munyaya dzezvehupfumi zvichiratidza kuti hupfumi hwenyika huri kukwira nekukasika.
Zvino pane Galloping Inflation, iyo iyo inflation rates inosvika pakukwirira kwe10-1000% pagore. Iyi ndiyo mamiriro ehupfumi akaoma anoita kuti vanhu varasikirwe nekutenda mumari sezvo kukosha kwemari kunowira nokukurumidza.
Iyo yakanyanyisa fomu ndeye hyperinflation. Apa ndipo apo kuwedzera kwemitengo kunenge kusingadzoreki zvekuti pfungwa yekukwira kwemitengo haina zvazvinoreva. Mitengo inogona kuwedzera nemamiriyoni kana kunyange mabhiriyoni muzana pagore. Mienzaniso yakakurumbira inosanganisira mushure meHondo Yenyika I Germany uye munguva pfupi yapfuura, Zimbabwe neVenezuela.
Chekupedzisira, tinazvo Stagflation uye Deflation. Stagflation inguva isingawanzo kubatanidza inflation, kuderera kwehupfumi, uye kushaikwa kwakanyanya. Deflation, zvinopesana nekukwira kwemitengo, kuderera kwemutengo wehuwandu hwezvinhu nesevhisi, kazhinji kunokonzerwa nekuderedzwa kwekupihwa kwemari kana chikwereti.
Imwe neimwe mhando yekukwira kwemitengo inouya nematambudziko ayo uye inoda zvakasiyana nzira kutarisira. Kunzwisisa mhando idzi kwakakosha kune traders kuti vafambe nemamiriro ehupfumi nemazvo.
2. Mhedzisiro yeInflation
Inflation. Ndiye tenzi wechidhori akanyarara, achidhonza tambo kuseri kwezviratidziro, achipesvedzera nekuyerera kwemusika nekuyerera. Asi chii chinoita chaizvo? Ngatidzoserei keteni uye tinyatsotarisisa.
Nenzira yaro yakapusa, inflation chiyero chiri kukwira huwandu hwemitengo yezvinhu nesevhisi, uyezve, simba rekutenga riri kuderera. Zvakafanana nemutero wakavanzika unobvisa kukosha kwemari yako. Fungidzira uine $100 bhiri nhasi. Mukati megore, kana inflation iri 2%, $100 iyoyo ingangoita $98 chete panyaya yesimba rekutenga.
Inflation inokonzeresa kutengeserana yakawandisa. Kune imwe, inogona kukanganisa interest rate. Mabhanga eCentral anowanzo edza kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira nekufamba nemitengo yemubereko. Izvi zvinoita kuti kukwereta kudhure, kunonotsa basa rehupfumi uye, zvakare, kuderedza inflation. The flip side? Mbeu yepamusoro inogona kuita mamwe mabhii, sezvisungo, anoyevedza, anogona kutsausa mari kubva kumusika wemasheya.
Inflation inogonawo kukanganisa exchange rates. Kana nyika iine inflation yepamusoro kana ichienzaniswa nedzimwe, mari yayo inogona kudzikira. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti, sezvo inflation ichikwira, simba rekutenga remari rinodonha, zvichiita kuti isanyanya kudiwa kubata. Izvi zvinogona kukonzera kuderera kwehuwandu hwekuchinjana kwayo.
Mihoro yekambani havana kudzivirirwa nekubata inflation. Sezvo mutengo wezvinhu nemasevhisi uchiwedzera, makambani anogona kutarisana nemitengo yakakwira yekushandisa, iyo inogona kudya mupurofiti yavo. Kune rumwe rutivi, vanogona kukwanisa kupfuudza idzi mitengo kuvatengi nekukwira mitengo yavo. Mhedzisiro pamihoro, saka, inogona kuve yakasanganiswa bhegi.
Nepo inflation ichiita senge villain munyika yekutengesa, haisi nhau dzakaipa nguva dzose. Kukwira kwezvinhu kuri pakati nepakati kunowanzoonekwa sechiratidzo chehutano hwakanaka, huri kukura. Ndipo apo inflation rates inokwira zvisingatarisirwi kana kupinda mukudonha (deflation) iyo traders inofanirwa kuve yakangwarira.
Kunzwisisa kukanganisa kweinflation yakakosha kune traders. Zvakafanana kudzidza kuverenga mhepo kana uchifamba nechikepe. Iwe haugone kuzvidzora, asi kana ukazvinzwisisa, unogona kushandisa simba rayo kufambisa mari yako munzira kwayo. Saka, ramba uine ziso remamiriro ekunze padenga uye gadzirisa maseiri ako sezvinodiwa.
2.1. Migumisiro paEconomy
Mumitambo mikuru yehupfumi hwenyika, inflation hunhu hunogona kutamba gamba kana mbavha, zvichienderana nekuita kwayo. Kunzwisisa mhedzisiro yeinflation pahupfumi yakakosha kune traders, sezvo ichipesvedzera zvakananga kukosha kwemari, mutengo wezvinhu uye masevhisi, uye pakupedzisira, sarudzo dzekudyara.
Chekutanga, inflation inogona kuve chiratidzo chehupfumi hune hutano. Kana mitengo ichikwira zvine mwero, zvinowanzoratidza kuti hupfumi huri kukura. Mabhizinesi anonzwa aine chivimbo chekuwedzera mitengo sezvaanoona kudiwa kuri kuwedzera kwezvigadzirwa nemasevhisi avo. Izvi zvinokurudzira kugadzirwa, izvo zvinozoita kuti pave nemabasa akawanda uye mihoro yakawanda. Izvi ndizvo divi rakanaka reinflation, inowanzonzi 'benign' inflation.
Zvisinei, apo inflation inowedzera, inova simba rinoparadza. Izvi zvinozivikanwa se hyperinflation. Muchiitiko ichi, kukosha kwemari kunoderera nokukurumidza, uye mitengo inokwira pamwero unotyisa. Mutengo wezvinhu zvezuva nezuva unogona kutadza kutengwa nemunhuwo zvake, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemararamiro. Zvinogonawo kuita kuti mabhizinesi aderedze kugadzirwa nekuda kwekusagadzikana, zvichikonzera kurasikirwa nemabasa uye kudzikira kwehupfumi.
Inflation inokanganisa zvakare interest rate yakaiswa nemabhanga makuru. Kana inflation yakwira, mabhanga epakati anowanzo kukwidza mitengo yezvibereko kuti inonoke hupfumi uye kudzosa inflation pasi pesimba. Izvi zvinogona kuita kuti kukwereta kudhure, izvo zvinogona kuve nemhedzisiro pakudyara uye kushandisa.
Uyezve, inflation inogona kutungamirira kune chiitiko chinozivikanwa se 'kudonha kwebracket'. Apa ndipo apo vanhu vanosundirwa mumabhuraketi emutero akakwira nekuda kwekuwedzera kwemari yavo yezita, kunyangwe mari yavo chaiyo (simba rekutenga remari yavo) ingave isina kuchinja.
For traders, kunzwisisa mhedzisiro yekukwira kwemitengo pahupfumi kwakakosha. Kunopesvedzera kuita kwemakirasi akasiyana easset, kukosha kwemari, uye hutano hwehupfumi hwenyika. Isimba rakaoma, rine simba rinogona kufambisa kukura kana kukonzera kusagadzikana kwehupfumi.
2.2. Impact pane Investors
Inflation izwi rinowanzotumira kutonhora pasi pemusana wevanoisa mari. Asi nei? Zvose pamusoro pekutenga simba. Kana inflation ichikwira, kukosha kwemari kunodonha, uye kukanganisa kunogona kuve kwakakosha. Fungidzira uine $100 nhasi, uye gore kubva ikozvino, nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo, inongokosha madhora makumi mapfumbamwe nemashanu. Iro ipiritsi rakaoma kumedza chero investor.
Investment returns hazvidi kungoenderana chete asi kukurira inflation yekukura chaiko. Kana mari yako iri kudzorera ine mwero 2% asi inflation iri pa3%, uri kurasikirwa. Zvakafanana nekumhanya pachigayo chiri kumhanyisa zvishoma nezvishoma; unofanira kumhanya nekukurumidza kuti ungogara panzvimbo.
Asi hazvisi zvose zvakaipa uye kusuruvara. Inflation inogonawo kupa mikana. Mamwe makirasi emidziyo, akadai musha uye Zvigadzirwa, kazhinji anoita zvakanaka munguva dzekukwira kwemitengo. Izvi zvinogona kuita seruzhowa, zvichibatsira kuchengetedza portfolio yako kubva pamhedzisiro yekukwira kwemitengo.
zvisungo, kune rumwe rutivi, unogona kuva bakatwa rinocheka nekwose. Kunyange zvazvo vachipa mari yenguva dzose, vane hanyawo nekukwira kwemitengo. Kana tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo ichiwedzera, kukosha kwezvisungo kunogona kuderera, zvichikanganisa portfolio yako. Izvo zvakakosha kuti unzwisise izvi zvine simba kana uchiisa mari mumabhondi.
Inflation inokanganisawo zvakananga interest rate. Mabhanga eCentral anowanzo simudza mibairo yekurwisa inflation, izvo zvinogona kutungamirira kumitengo yakakwira yekukwereta. Izvi zvinogona kukanganisa purofiti yemakambani, uye nekudaro, mitengo yavo yemasheya.
Kunzwisisa kukanganisa kweinflation pakudyara kwako kwakakosha pakubudirira kwemari kwenguva refu. Haisi yenhamba dziri pascreen chete; ndezvekuti nhamba idzodzo dzichakutengerai mune ramangwana. Ndezvekuchengetedza nekukura pfuma yako mumatauriro chaiwo. Uye ndosaka wese investor achifanira kuramba akatarisisa inflation.
3. Kugadzirisa Inflation mukutengesa
Trading pakatarisana nekukwira kwemitengo kunogona kuita sekufamba munzvimbo ine zvimbambaira. Icho chiitiko chemari chinogona kukanganisa simba rako rekutenga uye kuderedza kukosha chaiko kwekudyara kwako. Asi, nemaitiro akakodzera uye nekunzwisisa kwakajeka, unogona kushandura iyi inogona kutyisidzira kuita mukana.
Imwe kiyi yekugadzirisa inflation mukutengesa kunzwisisa maitiro ayo pamakirasi akasiyana easset. kazhinji, mumatanda vanowanzoita zvakanaka panguva yekukwira kwemitengo sezvo makambani anogona kuwedzera mitengo yavo kuti ienderane nekukwira kwemitengo. Kusiyana neizvi, zvisungo, pamwe nemari yavo yakagadziriswa yemubereko, inogona kurasikirwa nekukosha sezvo inflation inowedzera. Ichi ndicho chikonzero kusiyanisa portfolio yako mumakirasi akasiyana easset kunogona kubatsira kudzikisira njodzi dzine chekuita nekukwira kwemitengo.
hazvo ndeimwe kirasi yeasset inowanzobudirira panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Sezvo mitengo yezvinhu ichikwira, ndizvo zvakaitawo kukosha kwezvinhu zvakashandiswa kuzvigadzira. Kuisa mari muzvinhu zvakadai goridhe, oiri, kana zvigadzirwa zvekurima zvinokwanisa kupa ruzhowa kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo.
Nekudaro, hazvisi chete nezve izvo zvaunodyara mazviri, asiwo riini uye sei. Kutora nguva yako trades kutora advantage yekukwira kwemitengo, uye kushandisa inflation-protected securities zvakadai seTreasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) inogona kuva mazano anoshanda. Izvi zvakachengetwa zvakagadzirirwa kuwedzera kukosha ne inflation, zvichipa chiyero chaicho chekudzoka.
Chekupedzisira, usarerutsa simba re Ruzivo. Kuramba uchiziva nezvemaitiro ehupfumi uye shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika zvinogona kukupa iwe kutanga mukugadzirisa yako yekutengesa nzira yekurwisa inflation. Nekuchengeta ziso pane zviratidzo zvakaita seConsumer Price Index (CPI) uye Producer Price Index (PPI), unogona kutarisira mafambiro einflation uye kuronga yako. trades maererano.
Rangarira, inflation haisati iri muvengi wekutya, asi chinhu chekunzwisisa uye kutonga. Nemaitiro akakodzera, unogona kuchengetedza yako yekutengesa portfolio kubva kune yayo yakaipa mhedzisiro uye kunyange kushandisa mari pamukana wainopa.
3.1. Inflation-Uchapupu Investments
Pamberi pekukwira kweinflation, savvy tradeVanoziva kuti kumwe kudyara kunogona kushanda sechikepe chakasimba chekununura mugungwa rekusagadzikana kwehupfumi. Musha, semuenzaniso, yakagara ichinzi inhare yakavimbika inodzivirira kukwira kwemitengo. Sezvo mutengo wekurarama uchiwedzera, ndizvo zvakaitawo kukosha kwemidziyo nemari yekurenda. Saizvozvowo, hazvo segoridhe, sirivha, uye mafuta, ayo ane ukoshi hwemukati, anowanzokwira mumutengo sezvo inflation inowedzera.
Nekudaro, haasi ese einflation-proof investments zvinhu zvinobatika. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), somuenzaniso, mabhondi akabudiswa nehurumende anogadziridza muukoshi nokukwira kwemitengo. Sezvo iyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inokwira, ndizvo zvinoitawo kukosha kweTIPS, kuve nechokwadi chekuti mari yako inoenderana nehupfumi.
Asi zvakadini nemusika wemari? Zvakanaka, mamwe masekete anogona zvechokwadi kupa dziviriro yekukwira kwemitengo. Mastock mumaindasitiri akadai sesimba, chikafu, nezvimwe zvakakosha vanowanzoona mitengo yavo ichikwira nekukwira kwemitengo, sezvo mutengo wezvinhu zvavanogadzira uchiwedzera.
Uye ngatisakanganwa nezvazvo Kunze kwenyika Investments. Kuisa mari muhupfumi umo inflation yakadzikira kana yakagadzikana inogona kupa mwero wedziviriro. Sezvo inflation ichikwira kumba, mainvestimenti aya anogona kuwedzera mukoshi kana ashandurwa kudzokera kumari yako yekumba.
Yeuka, zvisinei, kuti mari yose kuuya nayo ngozi, uye kuita kwekare hakusi kuratidza mhedzisiro yeramangwana. Izvo zvakakosha kusiyanisa portfolio yako uye kubvunza ane chipangamazano wezvemari kuti uve nechokwadi chekuti nzira yako yekudyara inoenderana nezvinangwa zvako zvemari uye kushivirira njodzi.
3.2. Matanho eKutengeserana Munguva dzeInflationary
Kunzwisisa maitiro emusika panguva yekukwira kwemitengo inogona kuve shanduko yemutambo traders. Nzira yekutanga inotenderera kuisa mari muzvikamu zvinobudirira panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Kazhinji, izvi zvinosanganisira simba, chikafu, nezvimwe zvinhu zvine mitengo inokwira nekukwira kwemitengo.
Fixed-income securities, kune rumwe rutivi, inowanzoita zvisina kunaka panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Chikonzero chiri nyore: iyo yakagadziriswa kudzoka kwavanopa inorasikirwa nekukosha sezvo mutengo wehupenyu unowedzera. Nokudaro, kufamba kwokuchenjera kungava ku kuderedza kuratidzwa kune kuchengetedzwa kwakadaro apo inflation iri kuwedzera.
Ndarama nedzimwe simbi dzinokosha zvagara zvichionekwa senzvimbo dzakachengeteka panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Kukosha kwavo kunowanzo wedzera sezvo vanoisa mari vachitsvaga kuchengetedza hupfumi hwavo kubva mukuputsika kwemhedzisiro yekukwira kwemitengo. Naizvozvo, kuwedzera mugove wako kumatare anokosha inogona kunge iri kuchenjera kufamba panguva yekukwira kwemitengo.
Musha ndechimwe chikamu chinowanzoita zvakanaka panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Sezvo mutengo wezvivakwa zvekuvaka nebasa uchikwira, ndizvo zvinoitawo kukosha kwezvivakwa zviripo. Saka, kuisa mari muzvivakwa inogona kupa ruzhowa kurwisa inflation.
Kutengesa mari inogona zvakare kuve nzira inoshanda panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Mari dzenyika dzine mitengo yakaderera ye inflation dzinowanzo farira kune avo vane mitengo yakakwira. Saka, forex wokutengesera inogona kupa mikana yekuita purofiti kubva mukukwira kwemitengo.
Pakupedzisira, mumatanda inogona kuve yakasanganiswa bhegi panguva yekukwira kwemitengo. Kunyange mamwe makambani achinetseka nekukwira kwemitengo, mamwe anogona kukwanisa kupfuudza mitengo iyi kune vatengi vavo. Naizvozvo, kunhonga masheya chaiwo yakakosha panguva yekukwira kwemitengo.
Rangarira, mazano aya haasi ehupenzi uye anouya nenjodzi dzawo. Naizvozvo, zvakakosha kuti uite yako tsvagiridzo uye pamwe kutsvaga zano rehunyanzvi usati waita sarudzo dzekudyara.
4. Basa reCentral Banks mukudzora inflation
Central bank ndiwo masimba emari anobata matomu ehutano hwehupfumi hwenyika. Vanodzora hupfumi kuburikidza nemvura yakaoma yekukwira kwemitengo kuburikidza nekushandisa zvakasiyana-siyana zvekushandisa zvavanazvo. Rimwe remabasa ekutanga emabhanga epakati nderekuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemitengo, izvo zvakafanana nekudzora inflation.
Inflation chiyero chiri kukwira huwandu hwemitengo yezvinhu nesevhisi, uyezve, simba rekutenga riri kuderera. Kana ikasadzorwa, inogona kukanganisa kukosha kwemari, kukanganisa upfumi, uye kukonzera matambudziko emari. Apa ndipo panopindira maCentral Banks kuchengetedza zuva.
Zvibereko zvemitero ndechimwe chezvombo zvine simba zvakanyanya mu arsenal yemabhanga makuru. Nekugadzirisa mazinga aya, mabhanga epakati anogona kukanganisa mari yekukwereta, nekudaro achidzora mafambiro emari muhupfumi. Kana inflation yakwira, mabhanga makuru anowedzera mhindu, zvichiita kuti kukwereta kudhure. Izvi zvinoderedza kushandiswa kwemari uye zvinoderedza hupfumi, izvo zvakare, zvinotarisa inflation.
Chimwe chishandiso chavainacho mabasa emusika wakavhurika. Izvi zvinosanganisira kutenga nekutengesa zvibatiso zvehurumende pamusika wakavhurika. Kana mabhanga makuru achida kuderedza inflation, anotengesa zvibatiso. Izvi zvinobvisa mari muhupfumi sezvo vatengi vachibhadhara kutenga zvibatiso izvi, nokudaro kuderedza mari uye kuderedza inflation.
Reserve zvinodiwa kune imwe lever central banks inogona kudhonza. Mabhangi anosungirwa kubata chimwe chikamu chemari yavo semareserves. Nekuwedzera chiyero ichi chekuchengetedza, mabhanga epakati anogona kuderedza huwandu hwemabhanga emari aripo kuti akweretese, nokudaro kuderedza kuwanda kwemari nekudzora inflation.
Uyezve, mabhanga makuru anoshandisawo kutungamira mberi kupesvedzera tarisiro dzekukwira kwemitengo. Nekutaurirana zvirongwa zvavo zveramangwana nemazano, vanogona kuumba zvinotarisirwa pamusika uye maitiro, izvo zvinogona kubatsira zvisina kunanga kudzora inflation.
Rangarira, basa remabhanga makuru mukudzora kukwira kwemitengo ibasa rakaoma rekuenzanisa. Vanofanira kutsika mutsetse wakanaka pakati pekudzivirira hupfumi kubva pakupisa uye kudzivirira kudzikira. Zvakafanana nekufamba tambo yakamanikana, uko kunyangwe kukanganisa kudiki kunogona kuve nemhedzisiro yakakosha. Nekudaro, nehurongwa hwavo hwematurusi nemazano, mabhanga epakati aratidza kuva vachengeti vemagedhi vane kugadzikana kwehupfumi.
4.1. Monetary Policies
Monetary policy kuita basa rakakosha mukusimba kwekukwira kwemitengo. Mitemo iyi, yakaiswa nebhanga guru renyika se Federal Reserve muUS, ndiwo maturusi akakosha ekudzora kupihwa kwemari, kupesvedzera mubereko uye kukura kwehupfumi hwese.
Kunzwisisa marudzi maviri makuru emitemo yemari kwakakosha. Kuwedzera mari mitemo dzinoitwa kuti hupfumi hwenyika husimukire. Bhanga guru renyika rinoderedza mhindu, zvichiita kuti kukwereta kudhure. Izvi zvinokurudzira kushandisa mari nekudyara, izvo zvinogona kutungamira mukukura kwehupfumi. Zvisinei, kana hupfumi huchipisa, zvinogona kukonzera kuwedzera kwekuwedzera.
Pane rimwe divi, chibvumirano chemari mitemo chinangwa chekudzikisira hupfumi hwenyika kana huri kukura nekukurumidza. Bhanga guru rinowedzera mibairo, zvichiita kuti kukwereta kudhure. Izvi zvinoodza moyo kushandisa mari nekudyara, zvichidzikamisa hupfumi uye zvinogona kudzikira inflation.
Icho chiito chakapfava chekuenzanisa. Kana bhangi repakati rakaisa mari yemhindu yakaderera kwenguva yakareba, inogona kutungamirira kune mamiriro anonzi hyperinflation, uko mitengo inowedzera nokukurumidza sezvo mari inowedzera pasina kusungwa. Zvichakadaro, kana mibairo yakakwira zvakanyanya, inogona kukanganisa kukura kwehupfumi, zvichikonzera kudzikira.
Uyezve, bhanga guru rinoshandisawo mabasa emusika wakavhurika - kutenga nekutengesa mabhondi ehurumende - kudzora kupihwa kwemari. Kana bhanga guru richitenga mabhondi, rinowedzera mari, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo. Kana ichitengesa zvisungo, inoderedza mari yekupa, inogona kumisa inflation.
Maonero ekuwedzera chimwe chishandiso chinoshandiswa nemabhanga makuru, kunyanya panguva yekunetsa kwehupfumi. Izvi zvinosanganisira bhanga guru renyika kutenga zvinhu zvakawanda zvemari, semabhondi ehurumende, kubva kumabhanga ekutengeserana nemamwe masangano emari, nekudaro kuwedzera mari uye kudzikisa mubereko kuti usimudzire hupfumi.
Munyika yekutengeserana, kunzwisisa zvingangoitika zvezvirongwa izvi zvemari painflation kwakakosha. Vanogona kukanganisa zvinhu zvose kubva pakukosha kwemari yenyika kusvika pakuita kwemusika wayo wemari. Saka, kugara uchiziva nezve bhanga guru rezvemari marongero anogona kupa traders neruzivo rwakakosha, zvichivabatsira kuita sarudzo dzine ruzivo uye kubata mari pamisika.
4.2. Inflation Targeting
Inflation kunanga inzira yezvemari inoshandiswa nemabhanga makuru kutonga nekudzora mwero wekukwira kwemitengo mukati mehupfumi. Zvakafanana nekaputeni wengarava ari kuronga kosi, nebhanga guru renyika riri kutungamira hupfumi kusvika pachiyero chakati chekukwira kwemitengo. Chiyero ichi chinowanzoiswa pa2%, nhanho inowanzoonekwa seyakanakira kugadzikana kwehupfumi.
Bhanga guru rinoshandisa maturusi akasiyana siyana kuzadzisa chinangwa ichi, kusanganisira kugadzirisa mari dzemubereko uye kudzora kupihwa kwemari. Kana inflation yakanyanya, bhanga rinogona kuwedzera mubereko kumisa kushandisa uye kuderedza inflation. Ukuwo, kana inflation yakaderera, inogona kuderedza mhindu kuti ikurudzire kushandisa uye kusundidzira kukwira kwemitengo.
Ngatitorei zvakadzama kuti izvi zvinoshanda sei. Fungidzira kuti uri bhanga guru renyika. Kana iwe ukaona inflation ichikwira pamusoro pechinangwa chako, unogona kufunga, "Nguva yekubata mabhureki." Waizokwidza mhindu, zvichiita kuti kukwereta kudhure. Izvi zvinoodza moyo vemabhizimisi nevanhuwo zvavo kutora zvikwereti, zvichideredza huwandu hwemari inoyerera nehupfumi uye, zvakare, kuderedza inflation.
Kune rimwe divi, kana inflation iri kupera pasi pechinangwa chako, ungada kurova gasi. Waizodzikisa mhindu, zvichiita kuti kukwereta kudhure. Izvi zvinokurudzira mabhizimisi nevanhuwo zvavo kuti vatore zvikwereti, vachiwedzera huwandu hwemari inoyerera nehupfumi uye, zvakare, kuwedzera inflation.
Kutarisa kweinflation hakusi pasina matambudziko, zvakadaro. Zvinoda kufanotaura kwakarurama uye kupindira panguva nebhanga guru renyika. Kana bhangi rikasafungira gwara rehupfumi kana kunonoka kuita, rinogona kupotsa chinangwa charo, zvichikonzera kukwira kwemitengo yakawandisa kana kushomeka. Zvose zviri zviviri zvinogona kukanganisa hupfumi.
Zvisinei nematambudziko aya, nyika zhinji, kusanganisira UK, Canada, neAustralia, dzinoshandisa inflation yakanangana nehurongwa hwavo hwekutanga hwemari. Vanotenda kuti nekuchengetedza mwero wakagadzikana uye unofanotaurwa weinflation, vanogona kukurudzira kukura kwehupfumi nekugadzikana. Nenzira iyi, kunanga kukwira kwemitengo kunoshanda sechinhu chakakosha chekufambisa mugungwa rakakura uye rinowanzoita kusagadzikana kwehupfumi hwenyika.
4.3. Basa reCentral Bank's Communication
Kana zvasvika pakukwira kwemitengo, basa reCentral Bank harigone kupfuudzwa. ICentral Bank, muchidimbu, ndiyo puppet master, inodhonza tambo dzehupfumi kuti ive nechokwadi chekuenzanisa pakati pekukura nekugadzikana. Chimwe chezvishandiso zvayo zvakakosha zvikuru muchiito ichi chekuenzanisa kutaurirana.
Kukurukurirana kubva kuCentral Bank chinhu chakakosha mukugadzirisa zvinotarisirwa pamusika uye kutungamira kwehupfumi. Kuburikidza negwara iri iro bhanga rinoendesa sarudzo dzaro dzemitemo yemari, maonero ehurongwa hweramangwana, uye kuongorora kwayo mamiriro ehupfumi. Ruzivo urwu rwakakosha kune traders, sezvo ichipa manzwisisiro mune zvingangoita musika mafambiro uye inovabatsira kuita sarudzo dzine ruzivo.
Iyo Central Bank's communication strategy yakashanduka mumakore apfuura. Pachivanhu, vaizivikanwa nemutauro wavo wakavanzika uye zvirevo zvisina kujeka. Zvisinei, mumakore achangopfuura, kwave kune kuchinja kune kujekesa kukuru uye kujeka. Shanduko iyi inonyanya kukonzerwa nekuziva kuti kutaurirana kwakajeka uye kunofanotaurwa kunogona kubatsira kudzikamisa misika nekusimudzira kushanda kwegwaro remari.
Semuenzaniso, kana Central Bank ikaratidza kuwedzera kweramangwana mumari yemubereko, traders vanogona kutarisira kufamba uku uye kugadzirisa maitiro avo zvinoenderana. Vanogona kutengesa mabhondi, vachitarisira kuti mitengo yavo ichadonha kana mubereko wakwira, kana kuti vangatenga masheya, vachifanotaura kuti makambani achabatsirwa nekukura kweupfumi kunowanzoenderana nemitengo yakakwira.
Zvisinei, kutaurirana kweCentral Bank hakusi nyore nguva dzose. Zvinowanzobatanidza chiito chisina kusimba chekuenzanisa. Kune rumwe rutivi, bhangi rinoda kupa ruzivo rwakakwana kutungamira zvinotarisirwa pamusika. Nekune rimwe divi, inofanirwa kudzivirira kukonzeresa kutya kana kufara kwakanyanya kunogona kukanganisa misika.
Naizvozvo, zvakakosha kuti traders kuti usangoteerera chete kutaurirana kweCentral Bank asi zvakare kunzwisisa nuances uye zvinorehwa nemashoko aya. Kunzwisisa uku kunogona kuvapa mukana wekukwikwidza uye kuvabatsira kufamba munyika yakaoma yekutengeserana munzvimbo ine inflation.
Rangarira, munyika yekutengeserana, ruzivo isimba. Uye kana zvasvika pakukwira kwemitengo, kutaurirana kweCentral Bank ndeimwe yemanyuko ane simba eruzivo rwaungave nawo.
