1. Overview Of The Lagging Indicator
1.1. Chii chinonzi zviratidzo?
Mundima yakaoma yezvemari nehupfumi, zviratidzi inoshanda sematurusi akakosha anopa ruzivo mukuita, hutano, uye kutungamira kweramangwana rehupfumi nemisika yemari. Zviratidzo izvi, kubva zvoupfumi to zvemari metrics, rubatsiro vanobatana - kubva kune vanogadzira mitemo kusvika kune vanoisa mari - vanoita sarudzo dzine ruzivo. Zviratidzo zvehupfumi, semuenzaniso, zvinogona kuratidza hutano hwese hwehupfumi, nepo zviratidzo zvemari zvingangotarisa zvakanyanya pamusika mafambiro kana kuita kwekambani.
1.2. Chii chinonzi Lagging Indicators
Zviratidzo zvekukanda iboka chairo rezviratidzo zvinomira pachena nehunhu hwazvo hwekusimbisa pane kufanotaura mafambiro. Kusiyana nevamwe vavo vanofanotaura, zviratidzi zvinononoka zvinopa maonero ekudzoka, zvichiita kuti zvive zvakakosha pakusimbisa mapatani uye mafambiro atove kufamba. Iwo anowanzo kucherechedzwa achitevera akakosha ekuchinja kwehupfumi, achishanda sechisimbiso chishandiso chevanoongorora uye vanoita sarudzo.
1.3. Nei Dzichikosha
Kukosha kwezviratidzo zvekunonoka kuri mukukwanisa kwavo kupa mufananidzo wakajeka wehutano hwehupfumi uye hwemari mushure mekuchinja kwakaitika. Nekuongorora zviratidzo izvi, nyanzvi dzinogona kunzwisisa zviri nani kushanda kwesarudzo dzakapfuura nemitemo, kuzivisa ramangwana nzira uye kugadzirisa. Iyi nzira yekudzokera kumashure yakakosha pakuongorora kwakadzama kwemafambiro ehupfumi uye mafambiro emusika.
| chidimbu | Focus |
|---|---|
| Chii chinonzi zviratidzo? | Mhedziso yezviratidzo zvehupfumi uye zvemari |
| Pinda Lagging Indicators | Nhanganyaya kune lagging zviratidzo uye maitiro avo |
| Nei Dzichikosha | Kukosha kwekunonoka zviratidzo mukuongorora |
| Mutungamiri Wako | Chinangwa chepositi |
2. Kufumura Lagging Indicators
Zviratidzo zvekukanda zviverengero zvinotevera chiitiko cheupfumi. Vanochinja mushure mekunge hupfumi hwese hunenge hwatotanga kutevera imwe nzira. Izvi zviratidzo zvakakosha pakukwanisa kwavo kupa uchapupu hwekufamba kwenguva refu uye migumisiro yemabasa ehupfumi. Somuenzaniso, the kushaya mabasa uye GDP kukura ndiwo quintessential lagging zviratidzo. Huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hunenge huchidzikira mushure mekunge hupfumi hwatotanga kusimuka. Saizvozvo, huwandu hwekukura kweGDP hunoburitswa mushure mekota yapera, zvichipa tarisiro yekudzokera kumashure mukuita kwehupfumi.
2.1. Chii chinonzi Time Lag
Pfungwa ye "nguva lag" iri pakati pekunzwisisa lagging zviratidzo. Kunonoka uku inguva iri pakati pekuitika chaiko kwezviitiko zvehupfumi uye nguva iyo kukanganisa kwavo kunoonekwa muzviratidzo. Semuenzaniso, shanduko muhuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa inoratidza sarudzo uye shanduko muhupfumi yakaitika mwedzi yapfuura. Kunonoka uku kunoita kuti zviratidzo zvekusarira zvisanyanya kubatsira kufanotaura mafambiro emangwana asi zvakakosha pakusimbisa nekunzwisisa zvakapfuura.
2.2. Hazvisi Zvese Zviratidzo Zvakagadzirwa Zvakaenzana:
Zvakakosha kusiyanisa lagging zviratidzo kubva kune mamwe marudzi, akadai zvinotungamira zviratidzo uye coincident zviratidzo. Zvinotungamira zviratidzo, sekudzoka kwemusika wemasheya uye mvumo nyowani dzekugara, zvinopa kufanoona kune kwaizoenda hupfumi kana misika. Zvinoitika zviratidzo, zvakadai sekutengesa kwekutengesa uye mari yemunhu, inoshandura zvakangoita panguva imwe chete nehupfumi kana bhizinesi kutenderera, ichipa ikozvino snapshot. Kunzwisisa misiyano iyi kwakakosha pakushandisa mhando yega yega yechiratidzo zvinobudirira muongororo yehupfumi neyemari.
| Chikamu | gutsikana |
|---|---|
| tsananguro | Tsananguro yezviratidziro zvekunonoka nemienzaniso yakaita seyero yekushaikwa kwemabasa uye kukura kweGDP |
| Kunonoka Kwenguva Kunotsanangurwa | Hurukuro pamusoro pekunonoka pakati pezviitwa zvehupfumi uye kuratidzwa kwayo mune lagging zviratidzo |
| Haasi Zvese Zviratidzo Zvakagadzirwa Zvakaenzana | Musiyano pakati pekusarira, kutungamirira, uye coincident zviratidzo |
3. Kunyatsotarisisa Key Lagging Indicators
3.1. Economic Indicators:
3.1.1. Mwero Wokushaya Basa:
- Kunzwisisa metric uye kukosha kwayo. Mwero wokushaikwa kwemabasa unoyera chikamu chezana revashandi vasina mabasa uye vanoshingaira kutsvaka basa. Icho chiratidzo chakakosha chehutano hwehupfumi, kuratidza kuwanikwa kwemabasa uye chiyero chebasa rehupfumi. Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekushaya mabasa kunowanzoenderana nekuderera kwehupfumi, nepo kuderera kunoratidza kukura kwehupfumi uye hutano.
- Iyo inosimbisa sei kusimba kwehupfumi (lagging). Sezvo huwandu hwekushaikwa huchidzikira mushure mekunge hupfumi hwatanga kupora, hunoshanda sechisimbiso chesimba rehupfumi kana kupora. Vashandirwi vanogona kuzeza kupinza basa kusvika vavimba negwara rehupfumi, zvichiita kuti kushaikwa kwemabasa kuve chiratidzo chekuderera kwehutano hwehupfumi.
3.1.2. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Kukura:
- Kutsanangura GDP uye kukosha kwayo. GDP inomiririra kukosha kwemusika wezvinhu zvese zvekupedzisira uye masevhisi anogadzirwa mukati menyika mune yakatarwa nguva. Chiyero chakakura chekugadzirwa kwemukati mese uye chiratidzo chakakosha chehutano hwehupfumi.
- Iyo inopa sei nhoroondo yemaitiro ekuziva (lagging). Nhamba dzekukura kweGDP, dzinoshumwa kota, dzinoratidza chiitiko chehupfumi chakapfuura. Kuwedzera kweGDP kunoratidza kukura kwehupfumi uye kubudirira, nepo kuderera kweGDP kunoratidza kuderera. Nekuti nhamba idzi dzinounganidzwa uye dzinotaurwa mushure mechokwadi, dzinoonekwa sezviratidziro, zvichisimbisa mafambiro ehupfumi mushure mekuchinja kwaitika.
3.1.3. Consumer Price Index (CPI):
- vachitsanangura inflation uye kuyerwa kwayo kuburikidza neCPI. Iyo CPI inoyera avhareji shanduko nekufamba kwenguva mumitengo inobhadharwa nevatengi vemudhorobha yebhasiketi remusika wezvinhu zvevatengi uye masevhisi. Icho chimwe chezviratidzo zvakatariswa zvakanyanya zvekukwira kwemitengo, zvichiratidza shanduko mumutengo wehupenyu.
- CPI inosimbisa sei shanduko dzakapfuura musimba rekutenga (lagging). CPI data inoburitswa mwedzi wega wega asi inoratidza shanduko yemitengo yakatoitika, zvichiita kuti ive chiratidzo chekunonoka chekukwira kwemitengo uye simba rekutenga.
3.1.4. Retail Sales:
- Kutevera mashandisirwo emutengi uye hupfumi hwayo. Retail sales inoteedzera marisiti akazara muzvitoro zvinotengesa zvinhu zvakanangana nevatengi. Icho chiyero chakananga chemaitiro ekushandisa kwevatengi uye chikamu chakakosha chebasa rehupfumi.
- Kutengesa kwekutengesa kunosimbisa sei yapfuura hupfumi chiitiko (lagging). Shanduko muhuwandu hwekutengesa kwezvitoro kunotevera shanduko mukuvimba kwevatengi uye mashandisiro, izvo zvinoenderana nemamiriro ehupfumi. Saka nekudaro, kutengesa kwekutengesa kunoonekwa sechiratidzo chekunonoka, kusimbisa maitiro emutengi maitiro mushure mekunge aitika.
3.2. Zviratidzo Zvemari:
3.2.1. Stock Market Performance:
- Kubatanidza mafambiro emusika wemasheya kune investor manzwiro uye purofiti yekambani. Kuitwa kwemusika wemasheya kunowanzo ratidza zvinotarisirwa zvakabatanidzwa zvevanoisa mari nezve mihoro yeramangwana uye hutano hwehupfumi. Nekudaro, maitiro emusika anogona zvakare kuita kune zviitiko zvakapfuura uye mishumo yekuwana, zvichiita kuti ive musanganiswa wezvinotungamira uye zvakasara zvinhu.
- Maitiro ekare anoratidzwa mumusika wemasheya maitiro (lagging). Nepo musika wemasheya uchigona kutarisisa kumberi, unogadzirisawo zvichibva pamishumo chaiyo yemuhoro uye data rehupfumi, izvo zviri kunonoka zviratidzo. Nokudaro, kushanda kwekare, kana kwakasimbiswa, kunogona kukanganisa maitiro emusika wezvino.
3.2.2. Mihoro yekambani:
- Kukosha kwekuita purofiti kune makambani uye vanoisa mari. Mihoro yemakambani, kana mambure emari, inoratidza purofiti yemakambani uye yakakosha kune vanoisa mari vachiongorora hutano hwemari hwekambani uye kugona kukura.
- Mibairo yemakambani inosimbisa sei bhizinesi rakapfuura (lagging). Mishumo yemihoro inoburitswa mwedzi wega wega uye inoratidza maitiro apfuura. Iwo anonoka zviratidzo, achipa tarisiro yezvehutano hwemari hwekambani uye kushanda zvakanaka.
3.2.3. Mari dzemhindu:
- Kunzwisisa basa remari yemubereko mumatongerwo emari uye mamiriro ehupfumi. Mari dzemubereko, dzakatarwa nemabhanga makuru, dzinopesvedzera mari yekukwereta uye kushandisa. Ndivo chishandiso chekutanga chegwaro remari, rinokanganisa basa rehupfumi.
- Maitirwo emitengo yemhindu anoratidza sarudzo dzakapfuura dzepolicy uye mamiriro ehupfumi (lagging). Kugadziriswa kwemari yemubereko imhinduro kumamiriro ehupfumi uye inflation kudzvinyirira kwakaonekwa. Iwo anonoka zviratidzo nekuti akavakirwa pane yapfuura data data.
3.2.4. Debt Levels:
- Kuongorora chikwereti chasara uye zvazvinoreva. Chikwereti mazinga, angave eruzhinji kana emakambani, anoratidza huwandu hwekukwereta uye akakosha pakuongorora kugadzikana kwemari.
- Matanho echikwereti anosimbisa sei kukwereta kwekare uye kushandisa (lagging). Kukwira kana kuderera kwechikwereti kunoratidza marongero emari ekare uye maitiro ekushandisa. Saka nekudaro, iwo anononoka zviratidzo, achipa manzwisisiro mune yakapfuura kukwereta uye mashandisiro emari.
3.3. Business Indicators:
3.3.1. Mutengi Kugutsikana:
- Kukosha kweruzivo rwevatengi uye kuyerwa kwayo. Kugutsikana kwemutengi kunoyera kuti zvigadzirwa kana masevhisi anopihwa nekambani anosangana sei kana kupfuura zvinotarisirwa nevatengi. Icho chiratidzo chakakosha chekuita mukati mebhizinesi uye chakakosha kuchengetedza kukwikwidza.
- Kugutsikana kwemutengi kunosimbisa sei kushanda kwakapfuura (lagging). Ongororo uye nzira dzemhinduro dzinobata kugutsikana kwevatengi mushure mekutengeserana kwaitika, zvichiita kuti ive chiratidzo chekunonoka chemhando yebasa uye kuita kwechigadzirwa.
3.3.2. Mushandi Turnover:
- Kunzwisisa kugadzikana kwevashandi uye maitiro ayo. Kuchinja kwevashandi kunoreva chiyero icho vashandi vanosiya kambani votsiviwa. Kuwanda kwekutengesa kunogona kuratidza kusagutsikana uye zvinogona kuitika mukati mesangano.
- Kuchinja kwevashandi kunosimbisa sei maitiro ekare ekutonga (lagging). Turnover rates inotaridza sarudzo dzekare dzekutonga uye tsika yesangano, ichidzimisa sezviratidzo zvekusarira zvekugutsikana kwevashandi uye hutano hwesangano.
3.3.3. Inventory Levels:
- Kuongorora chinongedzo pakati pezvinyorwa uye kutengesa / kugadzira. Inventory nhanho chiyero chezvinhu zvisina kutengeswa zvinobatwa nekambani. Aya mazinga anogona kuratidza chiyero pakati pekupa uye kudiwa.
- Matanho ezviverengero anosimbisa sei yapfuura dhizaini rekushandisa (lagging). Kugadziridzwa kumazinga ezvinyorwa zvinogadzirwa zvichibva pane data rekutengesa uye fungidziro yekugadzira, iyo yakavakirwa pamaitiro ekare. Saka, mazinga ezviyero zviratidzo zvekusarira zvekudiwa uye kushanda kweketani.
3.3.4. Profitability Ratios:
- Kuburitsa ma metric akakosha emari ehutano hwekambani. Profitability ratios, senge purofiti margin, kudzoka pamidziyo, uye kudzoka kune equity, inopa ruzivo mukugona kwekambani kuita mihoro zvichienderana nemari yayo, midziyo, uye kuenzana.
- Kuti purofiti reshiyo inosimbisa sei kushanda kwekare kushanda (lagging). Aya mareshiyo anoverengerwa zvichienderana nenhoroondo yemari data, zvichiita kuti ive zviratidzo zvekunonoka zvehutano hwemari hwekambani uye kushanda zvakanaka.
| chikamu | Chiratidzo | Iyo Inosimbisa Sei Kare Kuita |
|---|---|---|
| Economic | urovha zvazvingava | Inosimbisa simba rehupfumi kana kushaya simba |
| GDP Kukura | Inopa maonero ezvakaitika kare zvehupfumi | |
| Yevatengi Mutengo Index (CPI) | Inosimbisa shanduko dzakapfuura musimba rekutenga | |
| Retail Sales | Inoratidza maitiro ekare evatengi | |
| zvemari | Stock Market Performance | Inoratidza zvigadziriso zvichibva pamihoro yakapfuura uye data rehupfumi |
| Mubatanidzwa Wemakambani | Simbisa bhizinesi rakapfuura | |
| Interest Interest | Ratidza sarudzo dzezvematongerwo enyika dzakapfuura uye mamiriro ehupfumi | |
| Maitiro echikwereti | Ratidza maitiro ekare ekukwereta nekushandisa | |
| Business | Kugutsikana Kwevatengi | Inosimbisa mhando yebasa rekare uye kuita kwechigadzirwa |
| Shanduro yevashandi | Inoratidza maitiro ekutonga apfuura | |
| Inventory Levels | Ratidza kudiwa kwakapfuura uye kushanda kweketani yekugovera | |
| Kubatsira Ratios | Simbisa kushanda kwekare |
4. Sei Kunyatsoshandisa Lagging Indicators
Lagging zviratidzo, nekugona kwavo kwakasarudzika kwekusimbisa uye kusimbisa mamiriro ehupfumi uye emari mushure mechokwadi, inobata kukosha kwakakosha mune zvese macroeconomic ongororo uye yega bhizinesi zano. Kunzwisisa mashandisiro ezviratidzi izvi zvinobudirira kunogona kusimudzira maitiro ekuita sarudzo, kuronga kwehurongwa, uye kuongororwa kwekuita.
4.1. Kusimbisa uye Kuongorora Maitiro:
Imwe yeakanyanya kushandiswa ane simba ekunonoka zviratidzo ndeyekusimbisa mafambiro anoonekwa neanotungamira zviratidzo. Nekubatanidza ese ari maviri marudzi e data, vaongorori uye vanoita sarudzo vanogona kuwana tarisiro yakazara yemamiriro ehupfumi. Semuyenzaniso, chiratidzo chinotungamira chinogona kuratidza kudzikira kuri kuuya, asi iko kudzikira kuri kuratidzwa muzviratidzo zvekusarira senge GDP yekukura uye nhamba dzekushaikwa kwemabasa dzinosimbisa maitiro. Iyi nzira yehuviri inogonesa kuongororwa kwakawanda kune chivimbo kwemamiriro azvino uye mafambiro emangwana.
4.2. Kuongorora Maitiro Akapfuura:
Lagging zviratidzo zvinopa lenzi yakajeka kuburikidza iyo mibairo yezviitwa zvekare uye marongero anogona kuongororwa. Kune mabhizinesi, kuongorora shanduko mukugutsikana kwevatengi kana shanduko mune purofiti ratios inogona kujekesa kubudirira kweakapfuura manejimendi sarudzo kana misika nzira. Kune vagadziri vemitemo, kuongorora mafambiro ehuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa kana kukura kweGDP kunogona kubatsira kuona kukanganisa kwemari nemari.
4.3. Kuzivisa Nzvimbo dzekuvandudza:
Iko kudzokororwa kwemaitiro ekunonoka kwezviratidzo anovaita maturusi akakosha ekuona nzvimbo dzinoda kuvandudzwa. Nekuongorora uko maitiro ekuita metrics asina kusangana netarisiro, masangano uye hupfumi hunogona kunongedzera nzvimbo dzakanangana dzekugadzirisa kwakarongeka. Kungave kuri kusimudzira kushanda zvakanaka, sekutaurwa kwazvinoitwa nereshiyo yepurofiti, kana kugadzirisa kugutsikana kwevashandi, kunoratidzwa nemitengo yekuchinja kwevashandi, zviratidzo zvakasaririra zvinotungamira kuvandudzwa kwakanangana.
4.4. Kuita Sarudzo Dzakajeka dzeramangwana:
Nepo zviratidzo zvekusarira zvisingafanofanotaura mafambiro emunguva yemberi, iwo maonero anowanikwa kubva mukuongorora kwavo akakosha pakuumba marongero eramangwana. Kunzwisisa mhedzisiro yezviito zvekare kunobvumira mabhizinesi nevagadziri vemitemo kuti vaite sarudzo dzine ruzivo dzichifambira mberi. Semuenzaniso, kana kuongororwa kweCPI kunoratidza kuti kukwira kwemitengo kwaimbove kusingatarisirwi, remangwana remangwana remari rinogona kugadziriswa zvinoenderana.
| Shandisa Nyaya | tsananguro |
|---|---|
| Kusimbisa uye Kuongorora Maitiro | Kubatanidza lagging neinotungamira zviratidzo zveyakadzama maitiro ekuongorora |
| Kuongorora Zviito Zvekare | Kushandisa lagging zviratidzo kuongorora kushanda kwemaitiro apfuura |
| Kuziva Nzvimbo Dzekuvandudza | Kuongorora zviratidzo zvekusarira kunongedza nzvimbo dzinoda gadziriso dzakasimba |
| Kuita Sarudzo Yeramangwana Neruzivo | Kushandisa maonero kubva kune lagging zviratidzo kuzivisa mazano emangwana |
5. Zvausingakwanisi Kufunga nezvazvo
Nepo zviratidzo zvekunonoka zvichikosha pakusimbisa mafambiro uye kuongorora mashandiro ekare, zvakakosha kuti uzive zvavasingakwanisi. Kunzwisisa zvipingamupinyi izvi kwakakosha pakuongorora kwakaringana uye kuita sarudzo inoshanda.
5.1. Hindsight Bias:
Imwe yemipimo mikuru yeakarebesa zviratidzo ndeye hunhu hwavo hwekupa ruzivo mushure mechokwadi, izvo zvinogona kutungamira kune hindsight. Kurerekera uku kunogona kuita kuti zviitiko zvakapfuura zviratidzike sezviri kuitika kupfuura zvazvaive, zvichigona kukanganisa maitiro ekuita sarudzo. Vanoongorora uye vanoita sarudzo vanofanira kungwarira kuti vasawedzere kufungidzirwa kwezviitiko zvehupfumi uye zvemari zvichibva pane zvakaitika kare.
5.2. Zvinhu Zvokunze:
Zviratidzo zvekusarira zvinogonawo kukanganisa kukanganiswa kwezvinhu zvekunze, sekukatyamadza kwehupfumi nekukasira kana shanduko isingatarisirwe yematongerwo enyika, izvo zvinogona kushandura mafambiro ezvakaitika kare uye kupa data rakapfuura risisakoshese kuongororwa kweramangwana. Kusimba kwemamiriro ehupfumi nemisika kunoreva kuti kutsamira pazviratidziro zvega, pasina kufunga nezve mukana wekuchinja kamwe kamwe, kunogona kutungamira kune zvisizvo.
5.3. Kurongeka kweData uye Dudziro:
Iko kurongeka kwezviratidzo zvekunonoka kunoenderana zvakanyanya nemhando yedata rakaunganidzwa uye nzira dzinoshandiswa mukuverenga kwavo. Zvikanganiso mukuunganidza data kana kududzira zvinogona kutungamirira kune mhedziso dzisina kururama. Uyezve, mamiriro ezvinhu ayo zviratidzo izvi zvinoongororwa ane basa rinokosha mukukosha kwavo uye kuvimbika. Kududzirwa zvisizvo kweakarembera zviratidzo zvinogona kutungamira kune zvisirizvo kuongororwa kwehutano hwehupfumi kana kuita kwekambani.
| Kuganhurirwa | tsananguro |
|---|---|
| Hindsight bias | The ngozi ye overestimating yekufungidzira kwezviitiko zvichibva pane data yapfuura |
| Zvinhu Zvekunze | Mhedzisiro yezviitiko zvisingafanoonekwi kana shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika pane chiratidzo chakakosha |
| Kurongeka kweData uye Dudziro | Kukosha kwekuunganidza data kwakaringana uye kududzira kwakaringana kuti uwane miono yakavimbika |
pfupiso
Lagging zviratidzo zvakakosha pakunzwisisa zvakapfuura hupfumi uye zvemari mafambiro, zvichipa ruzivo runobatsira kuongorora kushanda kwemaitiro uye kuzivisa ramangwana sarudzo. Kunyange zvazvo vachipa ruzivo rwezvakaitika kare rwakakosha, miganhu yavo, kusanganisira kurerekera shure uye pesvedzero yezvinhu zvokunze, zvinoda kududzira nokungwarira. Kubatanidza zviratidzo zvekusarira nemamwe marudzi kunosimudzira ongororo, zvichiita kuti vanobatana vafambe nekuoma kwemamiriro ehupfumi uye emusika zvakanyanya. Kuramba uchibatikana nematurusi aya kwakakosha pakuita sarudzo ine ruzivo mune inoshanduka mamiriro emari.
